Closing Commetary

 

 

 

 

 Market Commentary by Total Farm Marketing 

Closing Commentary - January 13, 2022

 

Top Farmer Closing Commentary

CORN HIGHLIGHTS: Corn futures were under pressure today from three areas – slow exports, improved weather in the South American forecast, and a weakening technical picture. March futures lost 11-1/2 cents to close at 5.87-1/2 and December gave up 0-1/2 to end the session at 5.57-3/4.

A major cool down in temperatures for well over to 100 degrees the next three days to 70’s and 80’s by next week, coupled with increased chances of rain, had futures on the defensive as well. Today’s close below an upward trending channel line as well as below the 40-day moving average could potentially be setting the stage for a drop to near 5.65 on March futures. The 50-day moving average held as support. Today was a solid close below the 40-day moving average, the first time this has happened since early October. What this suggests is the corn market is losing upward momentum and the bearish key reversal posted on December 28th continues to look more important as a potential near term if not long-term top. Another poor weekly export sale figure was noted today confirming the nearby pace of sales has not been supportive for higher prices. Today’s figure was 18 mb. This brings the total year to date to 1.632 bb or 67.5% of expected year sales of 2.425 bb. Yesterday the USDA trimmed to total expected sales by 75 mb.

SOYBEAN HIGHLIGHTS: Soybean futures were under selling pressure on the over-night trade and continued lower throughout the day session, finishing with sharp losses of 8 to 26 cents. January futures lead the way lower. The last trading day for January is tomorrow. March futures gave up 22 cents to close at 13.77-1/4 while November lost 8 cents to end the session at 13.04-1/2. Cooler and wetter in the forecast for regions of the southern hemisphere that are suffering from hot and dry was the primary reason for today’s lower prices.

Export sales at 27 mb were termed neutral. Year to date sales are1.559 bb compared to 2.038 bb a year earlier for the same time. Total sales for this year are forecasted at 2.050 bb implying that current sales are 75% of the expected total. That sounds good yet sales usually tail off into mid-winter as importing countries, mainly China source southern hemisphere supplies. The technical picture looks supportive but bear- spreading was noted with old crop contracts losing ground to new crop. November bean futures closing only 8 cents lower at 13.04-1/2 was encouraging. Yet, with higher fertilizer and nitrogen costs we strongly feel soybean acres could be on the rise. Despite today’s down move there was no technical damage on charts. Farmer selling will likely pick up if it looks like improved conditions in South America will occur. China made a statement indicating they would likely increase soybean production to be more self-sufficient. While that may be the case this is something that is a long way off in time yet may have partly pressured prices today

WHEAT HIGHLIGHTS: Wheat futures continued their liquidation today. A somewhat unfriendly report yesterday, coupled with poor export sales caused a lower trade. March Chi lost 11 cents, closing at 7.46-3/4 and July down 12-3/4 at 7.42-1/2. March KC lost 18-1/4 cents, closing at 7.59-3/4 and July down 14-1/4 at 7.64-3/4.

The marketplace viewed yesterday’s report with a bearish attitude when looking at wheat. The gain of 30 mb to the carryout (now at 628 mb) did not help. Adding to the bearish tone today was the export sales report, which indicated an increase of only 9.7 mb of wheat export sales. Despite the USDA lowering their export estimate from 840 mb to 825 mb, this is still behind the pace needed to meet their goal. Totals are now at 593 mb which is 23% behind last year. The results of the Iraq tender also came as a disappointment today, with none of the wheat being sourced from the US (rather, it was fulfilled by Australia). Paris milling wheat futures gapped lower on today’s session too, adding to pressure in the US market. If you choose to take the silver lining viewpoint however, it could be argued that these gaps tend to get filled. And though repeating it seems unnecessary at this point, dryness in the US southern plains remains also remains a bullish item of note.

CATTLE HIGHLIGHTS: Money flowed back into the cattle markets on Thursday, as strong retail values, and a sell-off in grain markets supported cattle prices.  Feb cattle gained .425 to 137.000, and April cattle were .450 higher to 140.975. Feeders also saw moderate gains as March feeders added 1.700 to 166.725.

The cattle market is moving into consolidation type trade on top of key support levels.  Trendline support hold April live cattle around the $140 level.  Prices are looking for directions, but with the near-term trend working lower, a possible break to the down side is still a possibility.   Cash trade looks wrapped up for the week, with little business done on Thursday.  Light cash trade occurred this week with a range of $136-$138 catching most trade.  This is $1-2 lower than last week and disappointing.  Beef carcasses maintains its trend higher , supporting prices.  At midday with Choice carcasses added 1.88 to 281.81 and Select was 1.35 firmer to 272.33. Load count was light at 77 loads.  Lighter slaughter numbers may be triggering a product shortage, and with demand tone strong, helping to lift retail values.  Estimated cattle slaughter for today 114,000 head. Weekly export sales for beef totaled 9,700 mt, with Japan and Mexico as this week’s top buyers.  Selling pressure in the grain market led to buying strength in the Feeder cattle market. January feeders expire on Jan 27th , and are closely tied to the cash index.  The Feeder index was .20 lower to 162.01.  The cattle market is still trending higher overall, but near-term, prices are challenging support levels.  The signs of a near-term low are not in place, and the tone in the cattle market will likely stay soft in the short term.

LEAN HOG HIGHLIGHTS: Hog futures saw mixed trade on Thursday, as selling pressure stayed in the front end of the market. Feb hogs lost 1.000, closing at 77.850, and Apr hogs were .075 lower, closing at 85.325.

Technical picture in the hog markets stays weak as the market is concerned about limited production and the buildup of hogs supplies.  Feb and April contracts are consolidating just above support, but could be targeting a further downside move to 75.00 in Feb hogs, and support near 82.00 in April.  Slaughter numbers are still trending lower as estimated slaughter today was 456,000 head, down nearly 28,000 from last week.  The cash hog market values on midday direct trade were .53 higher than yesterday, as the cash market is trying to find some footing. The Lean Hog Index traded lower, slipping .07 to 75.06, and still holding a 2.790 discount to the futures. The spread will likely limit the near-term upside in the futures market.  Pork carcasses exploded higher at midday, gaining 15.05 to 99.51. Strong gains were noted in the ham and belly primal cuts at midday. The load count was moderate to light at 184 midday loads. The afternoon close will be key in the direction of the market open on Friday, as the market see how much of the midday gain remains. Weekly export sales saw new sales of 19,800 mt for the first week of the marketing year.  Mexico and Japan were the top buyers of U.S. pork last week. The deferred contracts are building some recovery of recent lows, as the tight hog supply picture supports the longer-term market.

 

We are offering direct deposit payments and scale ticket grades via text message to ensure social distancing. Please call the Dysart office for information and forms.  

 

Tama-Benton Cooperative Locations and Office Hours 

 

Dysart- 319-476-3666

Office Hours

Monday-Friday 8:00-4:30

 

Vinton 319-472-4791

Office Hours

Monday-Friday 8:00-4:30pm

 

Clutier 319-479-2242

Office Hours

Monday-Friday 8:00-4:30pm 

 

All Grain Settlements are now completed at the Dysart Office. For your convenience Grain Checks and Contracts may be printed at the Vinton or Clutier locations. 


 CR PROCESSOR HOURS   

SAT, SUN, & MON JAN 15TH, 16TH, & 17TH

ADM:  SAT&SUN:5am-5pm  MON:5am-7pm

INGREDION:  SAT&SUN:CLOSED  MON:7:30am-2:30pm

STARCH:  SAT&SUN:CLOSED  MON:7am-3pm

CARGILL BEANS:  SAT&SUN:CLOSED  MON:BY APPOINTMENT 6am-5pm

 

THESE HOURS ARE POSTED FOR YOUR CONVENIENCE.SUBJECT TO CHANGE WITHOUT NOTICE.

BE PREPARED FOR EARLY CLOSING WITHOUT NOTICE DUE TO WEATHER, FLOODING, OR DOWNTIME.

Please report Direct Shipment Loads Promptly to the Dysart Office in Order to Maintain Delivery Schedules and to Final Price Contract Overfills and Underfills. Thank You 

 

 

 

   

 

 

Market Snapshot
Quotes are delayed, as of January 17, 2022, 04:15:38 AM CST or prior.
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