Grain Markets March Higher Overnight
Soybeans
Technicals
March soybeans recovered a fair amount of lost ground on Friday, spilling over into strength to start the shortened holiday week. 1055-1062 1/2 is the hurdle for the Bulls to get out above, above that and we could see a swift move towards 1097 1/4-1101. A failure to hold the early morning strength and a close back below our pivot pocket from could turn the tide and momentum back to the Bears.
Technical Levels of Importance
Resistance: 1055-1062 1/2****, 1097 1/4-1101****
Pivot: 1018 1/2-1025
Support: 1003-1008 1/4***
Fundamental Notes
Recent rains in Argentina’s agricultural heartland failed to alleviate concerns that the ongoing drought could further hurt crop yields, the Rosario grains exchange said, days after flagging that the nation’s corn and soybean production will be smaller than its previous forecasts. -Reuters
In Brazil, soybean harvest for the 2024-25 season is at its lowest for this time of the year since the 2020-21 cycle due to excessive rains in top grain-producing state Mato Grosso. -Reuters
Seasonal Tendencies Update
(Updated on 1.21.25)
Below is a look at historical price averages for January soybean futures on a 5, 10, 15, 20, and 30 year time frames (Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results).
Commitment of Traders Update
Managed Money are officially net long, to the tune of 34,833 futures/options contracts, their first net long since December 26th 2023.
Wheat
Technicals
Wheat futures are making a rebound in the early morning trade, retesting 4-star resistance from 548 1/2-554 3/4. If the market can chew through this pocket, we could see the buying accelerate with the next upside objective coming in from 574 1/2-577 1/2. We continue to view wheat as a good risk/reward setup to the upside, we just need to see some of these next hurdles get cleared for confirmation. A break and close below support from 520 3/4-529 1/4 would neutralize that bias.
Technical Levels of Importance
Resistance: 548 1/2-554 3/4, 564 3/4-569, 574 1/2-577 1/2***
Pivot: 540-542
Support: 520 3/4-529 1/4***
Seasonal Tendencies Update
(Updated on 1.21.25)
Below is a look at historical price averages for March wheat futures on a 5, 10, 15, 20, and 30 year time frames (Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results).
Commitment of Traders Update
(Updated on 1.21.25)
Managed Money increased their net short position in the recent Commitment of Traders report, putting Funds net short 94,393 futures/options contracts.
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